US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?

14 of 25 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 75¢ · $130K held · ends Nov 9

Yes75¢No25¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$129.7K

Combined PnL

$-3.3K

Smart Money Entry

75.3¢ → 74.5¢

-1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 25 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes75%

No26%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes14 traders

Total Value$113.3K

Total Shares151,139

Combined PnL$-2.6K

No11 traders

Total Value$15.6K

Total Shares61,748

Combined PnL-$669.07

Yes — 56%No — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

402h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 63% · 8

Diverging

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 59% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI bigbeliever	Yesavg 76.3¢	$93.2K	$89.9K	$-3.3K	— 2-2 (4)
MisTKy	Yesavg 74.8¢	$10.9K	$8.1K	-$21.27	71% 568-236 (804)
classifiedCTR	Noavg 26.1¢	$14.9K	$6.6K	+$141.7	58% 844-614 (1458)
MEPP	Yesavg 74¢	$5.2K	$5.2K	-$27.44	64% 633-352 (985)
88 881112	Yesavg 67.9¢	$2.5K	$2.7K	+$202.53	38% 567-944 (1511)
M2 M2sx92kljs42	Yesavg 67¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$232.26	73% 350-129 (479)
0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR	Noavg 27.8¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$202.56	36% 190-333 (523)
BigMackyG	Yesavg 70¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$110.03	20% 108-423 (531)
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR	Noavg 26.4¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$74.85	38% 20-32 (52)
petehegsethCTR	Noavg 37.8¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$503.85	60% 26-17 (43)
AgricultureSecretaryCTR	Noavg 24.7¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$31.54	83% 3802-802 (4604)
CarCTR	Noavg 23.1¢	$765.33	$770.2	+$4.87	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
FO Folletin	Yesavg 62¢	$623.1	$753.75	+$125.62	69% 423-188 (611)
ZE zerosmartCTR	Noavg 26¢	$783.31	$753.18	-$30.13	48% 66-72 (138)
AL alwaysOn	Yesavg 72¢	$720	$750	+$25	77% 632-185 (817)
LI lissartterARB<$100	Noavg 25.7¢	$5.9K	$728.29	-$196.6	42% 5284-7234 (12518)
└ No leg	Noavg 25.7¢	$404.27	$392.61	-$209.4
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 73.6¢	$329.49	$335.67	+$12.8
DragontreeCTR	Noavg 28.4¢	$450.53	$441.7	-$8.83	58% 1250-888 (2138)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 64.4¢	$260.01	$278.77	+$18.76	36% 16072-28083 (44155)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Yesavg 72.5¢	$188.67	$193.25	+$6.66	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
LJ LJa7io23MCv954j	Yesavg 68.2¢	$146.81	$161.54	+$13.65	64% 85-47 (132)
NO nonkenny90	Yesavg 55¢	$112.75	$153.75	+$39.97	89% 4653-547 (5200)
2B9S	Yesavg 83¢	$166	$150	-$17	18% 3833-17376 (21209)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$49.65	$46.84	-$2.81	57% 3069-2356 (5425)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Noavg 41.7¢	$65.77	$40.24	-$25.54	69% 156-69 (225)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100	Yesavg 63.1¢	$9.9	$10.41	+$0.51	50% 357-357 (714)

bigbeliever

Yes

Invested

$93,196.65

Value

$89.9K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

—

2-2 (4)

MisTKy

Yes

Invested

$10,871.43

Value

$8.1K

PnL

-$21.27

Record

71%

568-236 (804)

classifiedCTR

Invested

$14,865.19

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$141.7

Record

58%

844-614 (1458)

MEPP

Yes

Invested

$5,182.09

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$27.44

Record

64%

633-352 (985)

881112

Yes

Invested

$2,495.67

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$202.53

Record

38%

567-944 (1511)

M2sx92kljs42

Yes

Invested

$2,387.49

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$232.26

Record

73%

350-129 (479)

0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05CTR

Invested

$2,869.41

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$202.56

Record

36%

190-333 (523)

BigMackyG

Yes

Invested

$2,217.3

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$110.03

Record

20%

108-423 (531)

Contestable-ParfaitCTR

Invested

$2,229.15

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$74.85

Record

38%

20-32 (52)

petehegsethCTR

Invested

$1,561.92

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$503.85

Record

60%

26-17 (43)

AgricultureSecretaryCTR

Invested

$1,048

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$31.54

Record

83%

3802-802 (4604)

CarCTR

Invested

$765.33

Value

$770.2

PnL

+$4.87

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

Folletin

Yes

Invested

$623.1

Value

$753.75

PnL

+$125.62

Record

69%

423-188 (611)

zerosmartCTR

Invested

$783.31

Value

$753.18

PnL

-$30.13

Record

48%

66-72 (138)

alwaysOn

Yes

Invested

$720

Value

$750

PnL

+$25

Record

77%

632-185 (817)

lissartterARB<$100

Invested

$5,920.66

Value

$728.29

PnL

-$196.6

Record

42%

5284-7234 (12518)

Both legs:

No$404.2725.7¢-$209.4

Yes$329.4973.6¢+$12.8

DragontreeCTR

Invested

$450.53

Value

$441.7

PnL

-$8.83

Record

58%

1250-888 (2138)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$260.01

Value

$278.77

PnL

+$18.76

Record

36%

16072-28083 (44155)

Elias.Thornwell

Yes

Invested

$188.67

Value

$193.25

PnL

+$6.66

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

LJa7io23MCv954j

Yes

Invested

$146.81

Value

$161.54

PnL

+$13.65

Record

64%

85-47 (132)

nonkenny90

Yes

Invested

$112.75

Value

$153.75

PnL

+$39.97

Record

89%

4653-547 (5200)

2B9S

Yes

Invested

$166

Value

$150

PnL

-$17

Record

18%

3833-17376 (21209)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$49.65

Value

$46.84

PnL

-$2.81

Record

57%

3069-2356 (5425)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Invested

$65.77

Value

$40.24

PnL

-$25.54

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10.41

PnL

+$0.51

Record

50%

357-357 (714)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 75%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

14 of 25 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Late

402h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

6 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

58% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 63% · 8

Diverging

sharpYes 86% · 7

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 67% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 59% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.5%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.