Consensus PnL $404K · win rate 54% (27320–22840, n=50160) · PM monthly #230 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$403.9K
Record
27320W / 22840L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 50160 settled
Batting Avg
57.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1476
Source
PM monthly #230
Trades
639
Markets
90,463
Volume
$12.7M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Ethereum Up or Down on November 1?Up $48 · now 97¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
Specialties
34,485 settled consensus markets · held side won 74% at an average entry of 55¢- Crypto
+20 pts
side won 74% of 34485 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +23%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 20% of 8842)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 73% of 4839)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 94% of 7169)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 99% of 13635)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.