Consensus PnL $123K · win rate 61% (25–16, n=41) · PM monthly #284 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$123.0K
Record
25W / 16L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 41 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#779
Source
PM monthly #284
Record (90 d)
23/24 · 96%
Trades
16
Markets
44
Volume
$1.4M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Spread: Heat (-5.5)Clippers $18K · now 88¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Heat)
- Heat vs. ClippersClippers $3.9K · now 44¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Heat)
Specialties
24 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 56¢- NBA
+46 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +43%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 88%(won 95% of 21)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.