Consensus PnL $271K · win rate 80% (53390–13685, n=67075) · PM monthly #577 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$271.4K
Record
53390W / 13685L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 67075 settled
Batting Avg
40.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#421
Source
PM monthly #577
Trades
2,079
Markets
196,205
Volume
$12.6M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 4 on the consensus side (100%)- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $41 · now 100¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown $25 · now 100¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $9 · now 100¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ETUp $3 · now 35¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (69% of 17)
Specialties
51,200 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 56¢- Crypto
+42 pts
side won 98% of 51200 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +31%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 89% of 3434)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 98% of 8445)
- 50–70¢: 54%(won 99% of 27870)
- 70¢ and up: 22%(won 99% of 11451)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.