Consensus PnL $15K · win rate 40% (4–6, n=10) · was PM monthly #989 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$15.3K
Record
4W / 6L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 10 settled
Batting Avg
50.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2105
Source
PM monthly #989
Trades
151
Markets
16
Volume
$21.8K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Yes $279 · now 70¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
Specialties
4 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 40¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where howesr1970's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 50%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.