Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$1.9K
$437.68
48¢ → 70.3¢
+46% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Late
4877h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
51 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CD CDAP1 | Yesavg 74.5¢ | $729.42 | $681.97 | -$73.86 | 30% 11-26 (37) |
 zxdfbdfgngcxv | Yesavg 53.7¢ | $316.17 | $390.43 | +$74.26 | 82% 1758-394 (2152) |
HO howesr1970 | Yesavg 3.7¢ | $1.69 | $278.8 | +$262.9 | — 4-8 (12) |
FO forgetfuldory | Yesavg 56.9¢ | $242.11 | $272.7 | +$36.97 | — 5-5 (10) |
 2B9S | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $3.05 | $216.61 | +$212 | 18% 3833-17382 (21215) |
SI simplemanCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $125.68 | $87.02 | -$35.57 | 47% 456-520 (976) |
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $62.64 | $21.56 | -$39.02 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
Invested
$729.42
Value
$681.97
PnL
-$73.86
Record
30%
11-26 (37)
zxdfbdfgngcxvInvested
$316.17
Value
$390.43
PnL
+$74.26
Record
82%
1758-394 (2152)
Invested
$1.69
Value
$278.8
PnL
+$262.9
Record
—
4-8 (12)
Invested
$242.11
Value
$272.7
PnL
+$36.97
Record
—
5-5 (10)
2B9SInvested
$3.05
Value
$216.61
PnL
+$212
Record
18%
3833-17382 (21215)
Invested
$125.68
Value
$87.02
PnL
-$35.57
Record
47%
456-520 (976)
Invested
$62.64
Value
$21.56
PnL
-$39.02
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.