Consensus PnL $36K · win rate 63% (2449–1445, n=3894) · was PM monthly #994 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$35.8K
Record
2449W / 1445L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 3894 settled
Batting Avg
68.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1004
Source
PM monthly #994
Trades
1,086
Markets
16,484
Volume
$4.6M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown $488 · now 100¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETDown $15 · now 0¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
1,472 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 72¢- Crypto
+25 pts
side won 98% of 1471 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +21%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 56% of 63)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 94% of 89)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 100% of 397)
- 70¢ and up: 63%(won 100% of 923)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.