Consensus PnL $2.3M · win rate 62% (335–202, n=537) · was PM monthly #452 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$2.3M
Record
335W / 202L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 537 settled
Batting Avg
57.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1069
Source
PM monthly #452
Trades
832
Markets
969
Volume
$13.4M
Specialties
379 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 58¢- College Basketball
+45 pts
side won 100% of 87 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +46%
- NHL
+44 pts
side won 100% of 43 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +45%
- NBA
+39 pts
side won 99% of 74 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 73% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 100% of 71)
- 50–70¢: 49%(won 100% of 185)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 100% of 93)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.