Consensus PnL $99K · win rate 62% (30425–18515, n=48940) · PM monthly #732 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$99.5K
Record
30425W / 18515L
Win Rate
62.0%
of 48940 settled
Batting Avg
49.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1053
Source
PM monthly #732
Trades
491
Markets
63,881
Volume
$5.2M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $77 · now 100¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown $27 · now 100¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ETUp $10 · now 35¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (69% of 17)
Specialties
21,599 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 69¢- Crypto
+20 pts
side won 88% of 21599 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +15%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 42% of 1961)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 78% of 2114)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 91% of 5086)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 96% of 12438)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.