Consensus PnL -$47K · win rate 80% (4–1, n=5) · PM monthly #962 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-47.4K
Record
4W / 1L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 5 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#453
Source
PM monthly #962
Trades
69
Markets
14
Volume
$100.0K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes $68K · now 17¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Yes $64 · now 2¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
5 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 52¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where onepingonly's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 60%(won 100% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.