Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

110 of 132 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 84¢ · $4.2M held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

132

No 83%

Total Value

$4.2M

Combined PnL

$-128.0K

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 83.5¢

+7% since entry · 110 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 84%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

110 of 132 top traders (83%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No110 traders

Total Value$3.6M

Total Shares4,359,363

Combined PnL+$153.6K

Yes22 traders

Total Value$606.2K

Total Shares3,566,133

Combined PnL$-281.6K

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

110 traders

Top 2 hold 15%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 15% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 57

Aligned

sharpNo 90% · 70

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 59% · 29

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 79

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 80

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE denizz	Noavg 70.4¢	$270.8K	$303.8K	+$33.0K	68% 597-284 (881)
scout	Noavg 83.4¢	$245.1K	$237.8K	$-7.3K	90% 762-81 (843)
RD rdba	Noavg 75.7¢	$187.9K	$205.0K	+$17.1K	60% 131-88 (219)
TheQuietRiskCTR	Yesavg 20.4¢	$159.3K	$179.6K	$-63.3K	22% 16-57 (73)
ET ethBELIVER	Noavg 83.5¢	$562.9K	$164.0K	+$50.1K	39% 24-37 (61)
0X 0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082a	Noavg 76.3¢	$166.5K	$161.7K	$-4.8K	81% 194-46 (240)
XM xm39CTR	Yesavg 21¢	$162.7K	$157.3K	$-5.4K	56% 48-38 (86)
NO nonkenny90	Noavg 79.5¢	$141.8K	$147.7K	+$5.9K	89% 4652-547 (5199)
LU LulaVaiPerder	Noavg 77.1¢	$127.4K	$141.5K	+$14.1K	76% 317-102 (419)
SE SecondWindCapitalCTR	Yesavg 34.2¢	$280.3K	$139.3K	$-141.0K	36% 25-45 (70)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 79.3¢	$128.9K	$134.1K	+$5.2K	85% 605-108 (713)
0X 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2	Noavg 84.3¢	$126.1K	$123.5K	$-2.6K	96% 328-13 (341)
SL SlenderMan	Noavg 83¢	$116.2K	$115.6K	-$637.09	72% 257-102 (359)
ImJustKen	Noavg 73.3¢	$104.2K	$104.6K	+$461.46	53% 3036-2716 (5752)
Tigerofthehood	Noavg 80.8¢	$102.4K	$101.6K	-$821.04	87% 179-26 (205)
FR freeman123	Noavg 85¢	$100.0K	$96.5K	$-2.9K	82% 552-125 (677)
KE Kevindoto	Noavg 72.6¢	$72.4K	$82.0K	+$9.6K	80% 437-110 (547)
CO cocos228	Noavg 73.8¢	$58.5K	$81.5K	+$9.8K	72% 68-27 (95)
Dropper	Noavg 75.5¢	$76.9K	$81.5K	+$4.6K	71% 1136-463 (1599)
ON onepingonlyCTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$43.1K	$68.0K	$-47.4K	— 6-4 (10)
Anjun	Noavg 84.6¢	$65.8K	$64.2K	$-1.6K	55% 4925-3986 (8911)
TH thoodr	Noavg 81.8¢	$63.8K	$64.0K	+$522.99	96% 631-24 (655)
tetrase	Noavg 75.5¢	$63.1K	$62.7K	-$440.12	61% 839-543 (1382)
EA Eatpraylove	Noavg 75.8¢	$58.8K	$58.3K	-$457.96	57% 766-585 (1351)
eCash	Noavg 75.8¢	$52.7K	$54.4K	+$1.7K	68% 330-155 (485)

denizz

Invested

$270,807.13

Value

$303.8K

PnL

+$33.0K

Record

68%

597-284 (881)

scout

Invested

$245,136.74

Value

$237.8K

PnL

$-7.3K

Record

90%

762-81 (843)

rdba

Invested

$187,916.53

Value

$205.0K

PnL

+$17.1K

Record

60%

131-88 (219)

TheQuietRiskCTR

Yes

Invested

$159,263.26

Value

$179.6K

PnL

$-63.3K

Record

22%

16-57 (73)

ethBELIVER

Invested

$562,930.03

Value

$164.0K

PnL

+$50.1K

Record

39%

24-37 (61)

0xe639e41094bbeae18g3e6d1790c17299183f082a

Invested

$166,487.66

Value

$161.7K

PnL

$-4.8K

Record

81%

194-46 (240)

xm39CTR

Yes

Invested

$162,695.22

Value

$157.3K

PnL

$-5.4K

Record

56%

48-38 (86)

nonkenny90

Invested

$141,764.17

Value

$147.7K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

89%

4652-547 (5199)

LulaVaiPerder

Invested

$127,356.7

Value

$141.5K

PnL

+$14.1K

Record

76%

317-102 (419)

SecondWindCapitalCTR

Yes

Invested

$280,255.42

Value

$139.3K

PnL

$-141.0K

Record

36%

25-45 (70)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$128,891.95

Value

$134.1K

PnL

+$5.2K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2

Invested

$126,064.16

Value

$123.5K

PnL

$-2.6K

Record

96%

328-13 (341)

SlenderMan

Invested

$116,190.2

Value

$115.6K

PnL

-$637.09

Record

72%

257-102 (359)

ImJustKen

Invested

$104,154.37

Value

$104.6K

PnL

+$461.46

Record

53%

3036-2716 (5752)

Tigerofthehood

Invested

$102,398.6

Value

$101.6K

PnL

-$821.04

Record

87%

179-26 (205)

freeman123

Invested

$100,000

Value

$96.5K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

82%

552-125 (677)

Kevindoto

Invested

$72,365.06

Value

$82.0K

PnL

+$9.6K

Record

80%

437-110 (547)

cocos228

Invested

$58,467.37

Value

$81.5K

PnL

+$9.8K

Record

72%

68-27 (95)

Dropper

Invested

$76,891.86

Value

$81.5K

PnL

+$4.6K

Record

71%

1136-463 (1599)

onepingonlyCTR

Yes

Invested

$43,128.07

Value

$68.0K

PnL

$-47.4K

Record

—

6-4 (10)

Anjun

Invested

$65,776.86

Value

$64.2K

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

55%

4925-3986 (8911)

thoodr

Invested

$63,829.89

Value

$64.0K

PnL

+$522.99

Record

96%

631-24 (655)

tetrase

Invested

$63,096

Value

$62.7K

PnL

-$440.12

Record

61%

839-543 (1382)

Eatpraylove

Invested

$58,797.19

Value

$58.3K

PnL

-$457.96

Record

57%

766-585 (1351)

eCash

Invested

$52,747.26

Value

$54.4K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

68%

330-155 (485)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 84%

$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

110 of 132 top traders (83%)22 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

110 traders

Top 2 hold 15%

Freshness

Late

4873h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 15% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 86% · 57

Aligned

sharpNo 90% · 70

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 59% · 29

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 91% · 79

Aligned

Top 1000No 79% · 80

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.5%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.