Consensus PnL -$260K · win rate 68% (539–259, n=798) · PM monthly #486 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-259.5K
Record
539W / 259L
Win Rate
68.0%
of 798 settled
Batting Avg
61.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#816
Source
PM monthly #486
Trades
48,666
Markets
11,532
Volume
$3.6M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown $589 · now 100¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $307 · now 100¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
Specialties
1,870 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 65¢- Crypto
+35 pts
side won 100% of 1870 · avg entry 65¢
ROI −8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 100% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 100% of 340)
- 50–70¢: 39%(won 100% of 732)
- 70¢ and up: 41%(won 100% of 768)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.