Consensus PnL $18K · win rate 60% (2059–1384, n=3443) · PM monthly #818 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$17.8K
Record
2059W / 1384L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 3443 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1148
Source
PM monthly #818
Trades
25,994
Markets
16,210
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $372 · now 100¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11AM ETDown $99 · now 0¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (Up)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $49 · now 50¢ · in at 74¢against the consensus (Down)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11AM ETDown $23 · now 0¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
1,908 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 59¢- Crypto
+40 pts
side won 99% of 1908 · avg entry 59¢
ROI +2%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 9%(won 94% of 172)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 99% of 479)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 100% of 616)
- 70¢ and up: 34%(won 100% of 641)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.