Consensus PnL $157K · win rate 38% (16366–26305, n=42671) · PM monthly #726 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$157.4K
Record
16366W / 26305L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 42671 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2118
Source
PM monthly #726
Trades
846
Markets
84,612
Volume
$6.4M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown $202 · now 100¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $177 · now 100¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (74% of 19)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETDown $2 · now 0¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
8,621 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 61¢- Crypto
+39 pts
side won 100% of 8621 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +37%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 100% of 2245)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 100% of 1059)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 100% of 1156)
- 70¢ and up: 48%(won 100% of 4161)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.