Consensus PnL -$78K · win rate 47% (178–200, n=378) · was PM monthly #656 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-77.9K
Record
178W / 200L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 378 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1315
Source
PM monthly #656
Record (90 d)
213/463 · 46%
Trades
1,003
Markets
1,045
Volume
$3.6M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Karmine Corp (+2.5)T1 $8.5K · now 35¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (Karmine Corp)
- Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)T1 $2.6K · now 65¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (47% of 20)
Specialties
363 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 46¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where skadii's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 14% of 98)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 41% of 111)
- 50–70¢: 26%(won 66% of 96)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 78% of 58)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.