Consensus PnL -$1.8K · win rate 34% (583–1150, n=1733) · was PM monthly #676 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-1.8K
Record
583W / 1150L
Win Rate
34.0%
of 1733 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2483
Source
PM monthly #676
Record (90 d)
379/574 · 66%
Trades
19
Markets
1,781
Volume
$244.8K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 1 on the consensus side (0%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 2, 1:00AM-1:15AM ETUp $87 · now 0¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Down)
Specialties
713 settled consensus markets · held side won 63% at an average entry of 35¢- Crypto
+28 pts
side won 63% of 708 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +9%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 43%(won 40% of 306)
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 74% of 238)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 88% of 129)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 95% of 40)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.