Consensus PnL $534K · win rate 59% (1797–1245, n=3042) · was PM monthly #809 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$534.4K
Record
1797W / 1245L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 3042 settled
Batting Avg
71.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1206
Source
PM monthly #809
Trades
5,974
Markets
27,019
Volume
$23.8M
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ETUp $54 · now 35¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (69% of 17)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:45AM-12:00PM ETUp $7 · now 50¢ · in at 75¢against the consensus (Down)
Specialties
2,092 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 51¢- Crypto
+19 pts
side won 70% of 2092 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +27%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 28% of 394)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 60% of 546)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 86% of 690)
- 70¢ and up: 22%(won 93% of 462)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.