Consensus PnL $33K · win rate 50% (3–3, n=6) · was PM monthly #183 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$32.9K
Record
3W / 3L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 6 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1796
Source
PM monthly #183
Trades
4
Markets
7
Volume
$491.8K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Yes $2.9K · now 44¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
Specialties
5 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 58¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where user098422's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 80%(won 50% of 4)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.