Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 44¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$8.7K
$-1.2K
49.3¢ → 43.5¢
-12% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4342h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaulCTR | Yesavg 49¢ | $6.4K | $5.7K | -$714.91 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
US user098422CTR | Yesavg 50¢ | $538.7 | $2.9K | -$429.93 | — 5-1 (6) |
ST StraddleSellerCTR | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $141.87 | $128.29 | -$13.58 | 60% 174-115 (289) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.2¢ | $22.83 | $33.13 | +$10.3 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.7¢ | $14.27 | $13.79 | -$0.48 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 timebrotimeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $15 | $12.08 | -$2.92 | 67% 893-435 (1328) |
ED Ed2357CTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $1 | $0.81 | -$0.19 | — 0-3 (3) |
Invested
$6,369.9
Value
$5.7K
PnL
-$714.91
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
Invested
$538.7
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$429.93
Record
—
5-1 (6)
Invested
$141.87
Value
$128.29
PnL
-$13.58
Record
60%
174-115 (289)
Invested
$22.83
Value
$33.13
PnL
+$10.3
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
Invested
$14.27
Value
$13.79
PnL
-$0.48
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
timebrotimeCTR<$100Invested
$15
Value
$12.08
PnL
-$2.92
Record
67%
893-435 (1328)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.81
PnL
-$0.19
Record
—
0-3 (3)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.