Consensus PnL $43K · win rate 100% (2–0, n=2) · was PM monthly #540 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$43.5K
Record
2W / 0L
Win Rate
100.0%
of 2 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#47
Source
PM monthly #540
Trades
13
Markets
3
Volume
$904.0K
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $891K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
Specialties
2 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 98¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where world-changer's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 100%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.