Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

38 of 42 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 97¢ · $3.9M held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 90%

Total Value

$3.9M

Combined PnL

$330.8K

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 97.2¢

+10% since entry · 38 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

38 of 42 top traders (90%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No38 traders

Total Value$3.9M

Total Shares3,966,454

Combined PnL+$337.4K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$26.8K

Total Shares923,638

Combined PnL$-6.5K

No — 90%Yes — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

38 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 94% · 16

Aligned

sharpNo 96% · 23

Aligned

sniperNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 92% · 25

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 27

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395	Noavg 87.3¢	$1.3M	$1.4M	+$143.6K	— 15-4 (19)
WO world-changer	Noavg 92.7¢	$851.8K	$891.4K	+$41.4K	— 2-0 (2)
SE SecondWindCapital	Noavg 81.6¢	$401.4K	$437.5K	+$70.4K	36% 25-45 (70)
elmcap2	Noavg 95.5¢	$373.6K	$379.8K	+$6.2K	89% 1665-205 (1870)
0X 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952	Noavg 87¢	$55.7K	$204.0K	+$29.5K	85% 605-108 (713)
AV Avamax	Noavg 88.5¢	$189.2K	$197.2K	+$7.9K	81% 421-101 (522)
TE TeamA	Noavg 82¢	$123.2K	$146.0K	+$22.8K	— 2-0 (2)
AF afdafdafdafdafd	Noavg 93.5¢	$45.4K	$46.2K	+$812.7	73% 196-73 (269)
SwissMiss	Noavg 81¢	$24.3K	$29.1K	+$4.8K	66% 476-245 (721)
TE TexasOxCTR	Yesavg 3.5¢	$31.3K	$26.7K	$-6.1K	— 0-1 (1)
MA Macks22	Noavg 83¢	$16.6K	$19.4K	+$2.8K	78% 91-25 (116)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 93¢	$13.1K	$15.3K	+$860.59	76% 11354-3525 (14879)
BL BlackPeopleDontRecycle	Noavg 83¢	$12.4K	$14.6K	+$2.1K	77% 119-36 (155)
wish-	Noavg 95.7¢	$12.0K	$12.1K	+$175.8	79% 1176-319 (1495)
LO Loyalty-Crash	Noavg 83¢	$8.3K	$9.7K	+$1.4K	62% 45-28 (73)
SK skibabiba	Noavg 87¢	$5.0K	$5.6K	+$588.7	87% 95-14 (109)
Debosnys	Noavg 95.9¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$83.23	89% 1868-225 (2093)
vacoolaaa	Noavg 82¢	$4.1K	$4.9K	+$757.5	68% 124-59 (183)
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b	Noavg 84¢	$3.4K	$3.9K	+$526	97% 140-4 (144)
Talophex	Noavg 90.4¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	+$32.76	91% 929-95 (1024)
IN insidero	Noavg 87¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$49.06	76% 291-93 (384)
Car	Noavg 94.2¢	$2.1K	$2.2K	+$21.11	67% 4165-2026 (6191)
BMM-1	Noavg 91.4¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$24.79	95% 19-1 (20)
IG IGORS	Noavg 96.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.12	— 10-1 (11)
tetrase	Noavg 86¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$9.13	61% 839-544 (1383)

0xA2cd4CcdA9A1f95949DF7A3355C4c2DAa0642Ba0-1729178570395

Invested

$1,270,873.74

Value

$1.4M

PnL

+$143.6K

Record

—

15-4 (19)

world-changer

Invested

$851,804.1

Value

$891.4K

PnL

+$41.4K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

SecondWindCapital

Invested

$401,432.27

Value

$437.5K

PnL

+$70.4K

Record

36%

25-45 (70)

elmcap2

Invested

$373,586.21

Value

$379.8K

PnL

+$6.2K

Record

89%

1665-205 (1870)

0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952

Invested

$55,674.28

Value

$204.0K

PnL

+$29.5K

Record

85%

605-108 (713)

Avamax

Invested

$189,220.46

Value

$197.2K

PnL

+$7.9K

Record

81%

421-101 (522)

TeamA

Invested

$123,244.56

Value

$146.0K

PnL

+$22.8K

Record

—

2-0 (2)

afdafdafdafdafd

Invested

$45,377.78

Value

$46.2K

PnL

+$812.7

Record

73%

196-73 (269)

SwissMiss

Invested

$24,300

Value

$29.1K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

66%

476-245 (721)

TexasOxCTR

Yes

Invested

$31,292.36

Value

$26.7K

PnL

$-6.1K

Record

—

0-1 (1)

Macks22

Invested

$16,599.88

Value

$19.4K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

78%

91-25 (116)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$13,067.35

Value

$15.3K

PnL

+$860.59

Record

76%

11354-3525 (14879)

BlackPeopleDontRecycle

Invested

$12,450

Value

$14.6K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

77%

119-36 (155)

wish-

Invested

$11,967.99

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$175.8

Record

79%

1176-319 (1495)

Loyalty-Crash

Invested

$8,300

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

62%

45-28 (73)

skibabiba

Invested

$5,046

Value

$5.6K

PnL

+$588.7

Record

87%

95-14 (109)

Debosnys

Invested

$5,416.31

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$83.23

Record

89%

1868-225 (2093)

vacoolaaa

Invested

$4,099.99

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$757.5

Record

68%

124-59 (183)

0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b

Invested

$3,360

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$526

Record

97%

140-4 (144)

Talophex

Invested

$3,367.48

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$32.76

Record

91%

929-95 (1024)

insidero

Invested

$2,763.4

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$49.06

Record

76%

291-93 (384)

Car

Invested

$2,137.57

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$21.11

Record

67%

4165-2026 (6191)

BMM-1

Invested

$1,575.4

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$24.79

Record

95%

19-1 (20)

IGORS

Invested

$1,328.7

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.12

Record

—

10-1 (11)

tetrase

Invested

$1,113.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$9.13

Record

61%

839-544 (1383)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
$100k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +13.2 % a trade (n 91), a small sample. Full year, out of sample: 80 %+ with $100k+ on the side −0.3 % a trade (n 835, 95 % CI −3.8 to +3.4): no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

38 of 42 top traders (90%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

38 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 94% · 16

Aligned

sharpNo 96% · 23

Aligned

sniperNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 92% · 25

Aligned

Top 1000No 93% · 27

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.