Consensus PnL -$1.5M · win rate 58% (11037–7927, n=18964) · was PM monthly #997 · holds 1 consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-1.5M
Record
11037W / 7927L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 18964 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1267
Source
PM monthly #997
Trades
267
Markets
22,254
Volume
$6.9M
Top consensus positions
1 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 1 on the consensus side (100%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ETUp $37 · now 35¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (69% of 17)
Specialties
13,176 settled consensus markets · held side won 54% at an average entry of 68¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where wowitsamazing's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 54% of 13175 at an average 68¢ entry (−14 pts against the price), ROI −27%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 10% of 620)
- 30–50¢: 11%(won 28% of 1394)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 43% of 3157)
- 70¢ and up: 61%(won 66% of 8005)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.