Consensus PnL $49K · win rate 65% (1981–1056, n=3037) · PM monthly #415 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$49.2K
Record
1981W / 1056L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 3037 settled
Batting Avg
41.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#920
Source
PM monthly #415
Trades
2,579
Markets
15,131
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETUp $131 · now 100¢ · in at 47¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:15PM ETUp $44 · now 35¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (69% of 17)
- Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 12:00PM-12:05PM ETDown $27 · now 100¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
- Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETDown $10 · now 0¢ · in at 56¢against the consensus (Up)
Specialties
1,184 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 65¢- Crypto
+31 pts
side won 96% of 1160 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +25%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 97% of 31)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 95% of 182)
- 50–70¢: 42%(won 93% of 496)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 100% of 475)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.