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69
Consensus PnL -$51K · win rate 85% (51–9, n=60) · PM monthly #516 · holds 2 consensus positions
0x696de7b6...7484f89dPolymarket
🔄Contrarian🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-51.2K
Record
51W / 9L
Win Rate
85.0%
of 60 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#345
Source
PM monthly #516
Trades
108
Markets
81
Volume
$231.5K
Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes $157K · now 17¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $35 · now 0¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
54 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 49¢- NBA
+38 pts
side won 87% of 53 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +16%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 17% of 6)
- 30–50¢: 37%(won 95% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 46%(won 96% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 100% of 3)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.