Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Lucio Ratti, while the market favors Maximo Zeitune (61%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Villa Maria: Lucio Ratti vs Maximo Zeitune
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Lucio Ratti (67%) · Lucio Ratti at 39¢ · $192 held · ends Nov 9
⚖️
Neutral
Lucio Ratti
3
Lucio Ratti 67%
$192.05
-$0.06
39.3¢ → 39¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLucio Ratti at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Maximo Zeitune 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100 | Lucio Rattiavg 39¢ | $99.45 | $99.45 | +$0 | 50% 495-491 (986) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Maximo Zeituneavg 59¢ | $47.51 | $49.12 | +$1.61 | 54% 484-419 (903) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR<$100 | Lucio Rattiavg 40¢ | $44.6 | $43.48 | -$1.67 | 51% 3961-3861 (7822) |
Invested
$99.45
Value
$99.45
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
495-491 (986)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$47.51
Value
$49.12
PnL
+$1.61
Record
54%
484-419 (903)
Invested
$44.6
Value
$43.48
PnL
-$1.67
Record
51%
3961-3861 (7822)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.