Consensus PnL -$38K · win rate 53% (404–362, n=766) · was PM monthly #738 · holds 15 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-38.3K
Record
404W / 362L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 766 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1557
Source
PM monthly #738
Trades
9
Markets
875
Volume
$851.4K
Top consensus positions
15 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 15 on the consensus side (13%)- Spread: Patriots (-7.5)Patriots $2.6K · now 46¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Dolphins)
- Clippers vs. WarriorsClippers $1.5K · now 47¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (44% of 23)
- Chris Godwin Jr.: Receiving Yards O/U 39.5Under $860 · now 46¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Over)
- Titans vs. BengalsBengals $664 · now 88¢ · in at 81¢against the consensus (Titans)
- Raiders vs. JetsRaiders $498 · now 47¢ · in at 47¢against the consensus (Jets)
- Spread: Bears (-5.5)Seahawks $399 · now 76¢ · in at 74¢against the consensus (Bears)
- Spread: Jaguars (-8.5)Jaguars $280 · now 56¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Colts)
- Spread: Jets (-7.5)Jets $242 · now 26¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Raiders)
Specialties
539 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 55¢- NBA
+28 pts
side won 79% of 276 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +18%
- College Football
+15 pts
side won 71% of 77 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +8%
- NFL
+14 pts
side won 71% of 48 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +19%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 62% of 13 at an average 67¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI +9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 61% of 23)
- 30–50¢: 34%(won 68% of 181)
- 50–70¢: 45%(won 75% of 243)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 90% of 92)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.