Consensus PnL $22K · win rate 49% (3722–3829, n=7551) · was PM monthly #991 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$21.7K
Record
3722W / 3829L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 7551 settled
Batting Avg
81.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1831
Source
PM monthly #991
Trades
478
Markets
8,169
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 2.5Under $593 · now 61¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (58% of 20)
- Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-10-10?Yes $477 · now 31¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-11-01?Yes $453 · now 31¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Athletic Club win on 2026-10-10?No $443 · now 54¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (76% of 32)
Specialties
2,991 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 47¢- Tennis
+45 pts
side won 91% of 1054 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +43%
- Soccer
+44 pts
side won 92% of 1319 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +38%
- College Football
+56 pts
side won 97% of 30 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +56%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 69% of 341)
- 30–50¢: 40%(won 93% of 1207)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 96% of 1443)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.