Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Guangdong Southern Tigers, while the market favors Qingdao Eagles (59%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Guangdong Southern Tigers (-2.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Guangdong Southern Tigers (75%) · Guangdong Southern Tigers at 41¢ · $271 held · ended Nov 2
⚠️
Avoid
Guangdong Southern Tigers
4
Guangdong Southern Tigers 75%
$271.42
$29.86
35.5¢ → 41.5¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidGuangdong Southern Tigers at 41%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Qingdao Eagles 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 35¢ | $134.57 | $159.57 | +$25 | 51% 17613-16616 (34229) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 37.4¢ | $83.8 | $80.6 | -$3.2 | 45% 12902-15667 (28569) |
MI mishipolisCTR<$100 | Guangdong Southern Tigersavg 31¢ | $50 | $23.75 | +$8.25 | 50% 4634-4563 (9197) |
 alpheclabs2<$100 | Qingdao Eaglesavg 60¢ | $7.69 | $7.5 | -$0.19 | 49% 93-98 (191) |
Invested
$134.57
Value
$159.57
PnL
+$25
Record
51%
17613-16616 (34229)
Invested
$83.8
Value
$80.6
PnL
-$3.2
Record
45%
12902-15667 (28569)
Invested
$50
Value
$23.75
PnL
+$8.25
Record
50%
4634-4563 (9197)
alpheclabs2<$100Invested
$7.69
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$0.19
Record
49%
93-98 (191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.