Consensus PnL $31K · win rate 43% (65–86, n=151) · PM monthly #234 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$30.8K
Record
65W / 86L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 151 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2293
Source
PM monthly #234
Record (90 d)
77/173 · 45%
Trades
412
Markets
200
Volume
$185.3K
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Will UE Tavernes vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?No $800 · now 95¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (83% of 7)
- Counter-Strike: DNK vs Wingman (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group StageWingman $448 · now 39¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (DNK)
- Will Al Nassr Club win on 2026-10-26?Yes $154 · now 60¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (88% of 9)
- Spread: Guangdong Southern Tigers (-2.5)Qingdao Eagles $9 · now 52¢ · in at 60¢against the consensus (Guangdong Southern Tigers)
Specialties
122 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 40¢- Soccer
+4 pts
side won 44% of 63 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +18%
- Esports
+11 pts
side won 64% of 11 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 39%(won 13% of 48)
- 30–50¢: 25%(won 52% of 31)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 62% of 26)
- 70¢ and up: 14%(won 94% of 17)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.