Consensus PnL $126K · win rate 42% (1072–1460, n=2532) · was PM monthly #976 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$126.2K
Record
1072W / 1460L
Win Rate
42.0%
of 2532 settled
Batting Avg
54.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2057
Source
PM monthly #976
Trades
2,895
Markets
9,501
Volume
$4.8M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?No $1.5K · now 85¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Nepal Premier League: Janakpur Bolts vs Pokhara AvengersPokhara Avengers $216 · now 0¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (Janakpur Bolts)
- Afghanistan and Zimbabwe in the UAE T20s: Afghanistan vs ZimbabweAfghanistan $121 · now 99¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Villanova WildcatsNotre Dame Fighting Irish $30 · now 8¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (Villanova Wildcats)
Specialties
1,062 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 50¢- Tennis
+10 pts
side won 60% of 209 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +4%
- F1
+10 pts
side won 79% of 43 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +6%
- College Football
+13 pts
side won 67% of 15 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 42% of 214 at an average 44¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 27%(won 5% of 292)
- 30–50¢: 27%(won 37% of 287)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 70% of 158)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 97% of 325)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.