Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 57¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$12.09
59.5¢ → 57.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 61¢ | $269.1 | $302.73 | -$20.28 | 51% 26331-24957 (51288) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $273.24 | $279.4 | +$4.4 | 64% 10070-5629 (15699) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57¢ | $201.27 | $204.8 | +$1.77 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41¢ | $71.96 | $74.6 | +$2.63 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 42¢ | $495 | $212.5 | +$7.5 | 58% 47075-33957 (81032) |
GC GC-P | Yesavg 57¢ | $196.6 | $200.05 | +$1.72 | 64% 10093-5699 (15792) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Yesavg 65¢ | $8.93 | $7.9 | -$1.03 | 48% 61939-66798 (128737) |
Invested
$269.1
Value
$302.73
PnL
-$20.28
Record
51%
26331-24957 (51288)
Invested
$273.24
Value
$279.4
PnL
+$4.4
Record
64%
10070-5629 (15699)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$495
Value
$212.5
PnL
+$7.5
Record
58%
47075-33957 (81032)
Invested
$196.6
Value
$200.05
PnL
+$1.72
Record
64%
10093-5699 (15792)
Invested
$8.93
Value
$7.9
PnL
-$1.03
Record
48%
61939-66798 (128737)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.