Detroit Titans vs. Xavier Musketeers
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Xavier Musketeers (80%) · Xavier Musketeers at 100¢ · $823 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Xavier Musketeers
5
Xavier Musketeers 80%
$823.49
$0.49
99.1¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidXavier Musketeers at 100%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Xavier Musketeers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Xavier Musketeersavg 99¢ | $445.57 | $447.73 | +$2.16 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
38 38791873984189 | Xavier Musketeersavg 99.1¢ | $333.11 | $332.64 | -$0.47 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Xavier Musketeersavg 99.2¢ | $26.77 | $26.87 | +$0.09 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Xavier Musketeersavg 99¢ | $14.85 | $14.85 | +$0 | 32% 184-398 (582) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Detroit Titansavg 0.9¢ | $2.7 | $1.41 | -$1.29 | 26% 234-653 (887) |
Invested
$445.57
Value
$447.73
PnL
+$2.16
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$333.11
Value
$332.64
PnL
-$0.47
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$26.77
Value
$26.87
PnL
+$0.09
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$14.85
Value
$14.85
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
184-398 (582)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$1.41
PnL
-$1.29
Record
26%
234-653 (887)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.