Consensus PnL $169K · win rate 50% (14145–13918, n=28063) · was PM monthly #994 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$168.6K
Record
14145W / 13918L
Win Rate
50.0%
of 28063 settled
Batting Avg
58.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1726
Source
PM monthly #994
Trades
14,646
Markets
50,545
Volume
$38.6M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 10 on the consensus side (40%)- Olympique Lyonnais vs. Angers SCO: O/U 2.5Under $204 · now 43¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Over)
- Celtics vs. MagicMagic $162 · now 30¢ · in at 30¢against the consensus (Celtics)
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to ScoreNo $149 · now 73¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will FC Lugano win on 2026-11-01?No $55 · now 37¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Raptors vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under $30 · now 52¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $14 · now 85¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (78% of 29)
- Swiss Indoors Basel: Jiri Lehecka vs Valentin VacherotValentin Vacherot $13 · now 14¢ · in at 13¢against the consensus (Jiri Lehecka)
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO5) - PARI Universe PlayoffsTeam Yandex $10 · now 22¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (57% of 34)
Specialties
4,076 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 61¢- MLB
+46 pts
side won 99% of 406 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +44%
- College Football
+46 pts
side won 100% of 92 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +45%
- Other Sports
+44 pts
side won 100% of 93 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +44%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 96% of 236)
- 30–50¢: 26%(won 99% of 1075)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 100% of 1340)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 100% of 1425)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.