Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Everton FC vs. Coventry City FC end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 24¢ · $303 held · ends Nov 6
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$302.71
-$1.13
24¢ → 23.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GC GC-P | Noavg 75¢ | $113.46 | $89.81 | +$1.51 | 64% 9875-5563 (15438) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $73.01 | $73.01 | +$0 | 64% 9839-5498 (15337) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $72 | $70.5 | -$1.5 | 49% 3323-3512 (6835) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 24¢ | $228.95 | $53.8 | -$1.14 | 51% 25600-24316 (49916) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $15.3 | $15.3 | +$0 | 48% 60745-65398 (126143) |
Invested
$113.46
Value
$89.81
PnL
+$1.51
Record
64%
9875-5563 (15438)
Invested
$73.01
Value
$73.01
PnL
+$0
Record
64%
9839-5498 (15337)
Invested
$72
Value
$70.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
49%
3323-3512 (6835)
Invested
$228.95
Value
$53.8
PnL
-$1.14
Record
51%
25600-24316 (49916)
Invested
$15.3
Value
$15.3
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
60745-65398 (126143)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.