Consensus PnL $180K · win rate 48% (3198–3417, n=6615) · PM monthly #373 · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$180.0K
Record
3198W / 3417L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 6615 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2027
Source
PM monthly #373
Record (90 d)
1712/4278 · 40%
Trades
2,111
Markets
6,790
Volume
$25.8M
Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 22 on the consensus side (41%)- Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Venus Williams vs Mary StoianaMary Stoiana $9.7K · now 93¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (53% of 35)
- Will AEK win on 2026-11-04?Yes $4.6K · now 9¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
- Rolex Paris Masters: Alejandro Tabilo vs Rafael JodarRafael Jodar $1.8K · now 80¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-11-03?No $1.1K · now 61¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
- Will AS Roma win on 2026-11-03?Yes $1.1K · now 36¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-11-03?No $945 · now 39¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Rolex Paris Masters: Ignacio Buse vs Zizou BergsIgnacio Buse $914 · now 79¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (Zizou Bergs)
- Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo ArnaldiCameron Norrie $796 · now 67¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
Specialties
5,487 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 47¢- MMA
+10 pts
side won 80% of 35 · avg entry 70¢
ROI +9%
- Other Sports
+3 pts
side won 57% of 112 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 51% of 1046 at an average 53¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 22%(won 17% of 1196)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 40% of 1739)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 59% of 1659)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 80% of 893)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.