Will OGC Nice win on 2026-11-08?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$1.3K
$4
52.1¢ → 52.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
27h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 52.3¢ | $569.7 | $566.01 | -$3.69 | 51% 27272-25818 (53090) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 52¢ | $182 | $358.27 | +$3.41 | 64% 10184-5783 (15967) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 52¢ | $345.67 | $348.99 | +$3.32 | 64% 10183-5729 (15912) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $21.95 | $22.38 | +$0.65 | 58% 47904-34520 (82424) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 51¢ | $15.4 | $15.71 | +$0.3 | 48% 63191-68207 (131398) |
Invested
$569.7
Value
$566.01
PnL
-$3.69
Record
51%
27272-25818 (53090)
Invested
$182
Value
$358.27
PnL
+$3.41
Record
64%
10184-5783 (15967)
Invested
$345.67
Value
$348.99
PnL
+$3.32
Record
64%
10183-5729 (15912)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$21.95
Value
$22.38
PnL
+$0.65
Record
58%
47904-34520 (82424)
Invested
$15.4
Value
$15.71
PnL
+$0.3
Record
48%
63191-68207 (131398)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.