Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 8
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Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.0K
$5.39
78.6¢ → 78¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 78.8¢ | $742.01 | $734.32 | +$4.71 | 51% 26313-24941 (51254) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 78¢ | $163.8 | $163.8 | -$0 | 64% 10089-5691 (15780) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 78¢ | $131.9 | $131.9 | -$0 | 64% 10065-5621 (15686) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $16.32 | $16.98 | +$0.68 | 58% 47031-33914 (80945) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.