Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-11-08?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.8K
-$41.58
74¢ → 74.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 26.9¢ | $710.33 | $659.44 | -$50.89 | 51% 24452-23135 (47587) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 74¢ | $899.05 | $565.02 | +$16.7 | 58% 45668-33040 (78708) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 74¢ | $291.5 | $287.56 | -$3.94 | 39% 1400-2160 (3560) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 74¢ | $291.22 | $287.28 | -$3.94 | 40% 1398-2089 (3487) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $7.52 | $8 | +$0.48 | 48% 59434-63450 (122884) |
Invested
$710.33
Value
$659.44
PnL
-$50.89
Record
51%
24452-23135 (47587)
VeryLucky888Invested
$899.05
Value
$565.02
PnL
+$16.7
Record
58%
45668-33040 (78708)
Invested
$291.5
Value
$287.56
PnL
-$3.94
Record
39%
1400-2160 (3560)
Invested
$291.22
Value
$287.28
PnL
-$3.94
Record
40%
1398-2089 (3487)
Invested
$7.52
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.48
Record
48%
59434-63450 (122884)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.