Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: Athletic Club O/U 2.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 55¢ · $167 held · ended Oct 10

Over45¢Under55¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$167.45

Combined PnL

-$25.93

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 55.5¢

-36% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$113.22

Total Shares204

Combined PnL-$63.1

Over1 trader

Total Value$54.23

Total Shares122

Combined PnL+$37.17

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 86¢	$86.86	$56.06	-$30.81	48% 72152-77872 (150024)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 14.6¢	$17.79	$54.23	+$37.17	52% 49472-46424 (95896)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 87¢	$76.56	$48.84	-$27.72	50% 49262-48786 (98048)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 86¢	$12.9	$8.33	-$4.58	53% 28354-25627 (53981)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$86.86

Value

$56.06

PnL

-$30.81

Record

48%

72152-77872 (150024)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.79

Value

$54.23

PnL

+$37.17

Record

52%

49472-46424 (95896)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$76.56

Value

$48.84

PnL

-$27.72

Record

50%

49262-48786 (98048)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$12.9

Value

$8.33

PnL

-$4.58

Record

53%

28354-25627 (53981)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.