Consensus PnL $560K · win rate 49% (16463–17221, n=33684) · PM monthly #148 · holds 109 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$560.2K
Record
16463W / 17221L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 33684 settled
Batting Avg
71.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1827
Source
PM monthly #148
Trades
8,912
Markets
65,843
Volume
$59.2M
Top consensus positions
109 in listed consensus markets · 65 of 109 on the consensus side (60%)- Exact Score: SS Lazio 3 - 1 Cagliari Calcio?No $5.2K · now 86¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will FC Salzburg win on 2026-11-01?Yes $5.0K · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 3.5Under $4.0K · now 90¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Over)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $2.8K · now 42¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (59% of 44)
- Paris FC vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5Over $2.7K · now 54¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Under)
- Will FC Zurich win on 2026-11-01?No $2.4K · now 88¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Djurgardens IF vs. Degerfors IF: O/U 6.5Under $2.1K · now 100¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- SS Lazio vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 0.5Over $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
Specialties
3,695 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 65¢- College Football
+52 pts
side won 100% of 240 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +51%
- NFL
+52 pts
side won 100% of 82 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +52%
- NBA
+51 pts
side won 100% of 67 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +52%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 100% of 362)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 100% of 780)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 100% of 743)
- 70¢ and up: 49%(won 100% of 1810)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.