Spread: Celtics (-18.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (60%) · Raptors at 93¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
5
Raptors 60%
$1.5K
-$37.3
90.7¢ → 92.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 93%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 6512395314597884 | Raptorsavg 90.8¢ | $737.42 | $724.74 | -$12.68 | 50% 3299-3255 (6554) |
 RN1 | Raptorsavg 90.7¢ | $684.52 | $550.09 | +$5.07 | 57% 4056-3070 (7126) |
38 38791873984189 | Raptorsavg 90.1¢ | $115.96 | $107.29 | -$8.67 | 48% 1420-1557 (2977) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Celticsavg 9.1¢ | $124.04 | $101.87 | -$22.16 | 51% 1908-1842 (3750) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 13¢ | $14.82 | $15.96 | +$1.14 | 49% 684-724 (1408) |
Invested
$737.42
Value
$724.74
PnL
-$12.68
Record
50%
3299-3255 (6554)
RN1Invested
$684.52
Value
$550.09
PnL
+$5.07
Record
57%
4056-3070 (7126)
Invested
$115.96
Value
$107.29
PnL
-$8.67
Record
48%
1420-1557 (2977)
Invested
$124.04
Value
$101.87
PnL
-$22.16
Record
51%
1908-1842 (3750)
Invested
$14.82
Value
$15.96
PnL
+$1.14
Record
49%
684-724 (1408)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.