Consensus PnL $13.4M · win rate 48% (12760–13798, n=26558) · PM monthly #24 · holds 117 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.4M
Record
12760W / 13798L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 26558 settled
Batting Avg
58.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1867
Source
PM monthly #24 + pinned
Trades
2,151,293
Markets
102,944
Volume
$641.9M
Top consensus positions
117 in listed consensus markets · 58 of 117 on the consensus side (50%)- Trabzonspor vs. Gaziantep FK: O/U 3.5Under $27K · now 90¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Over)
- Frosinone Calcio vs. Torino FC: O/U 3.5Under $24K · now 80¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Over)
- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoLorenzo Sonego $19K · now 70¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (87% of 16)
- Will FC Utrecht win on 2026-11-01?No $18K · now 87¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Erste Bank Open: Alex de Minaur vs Carlos AlcarazCarlos Alcaraz $15K · now 100¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (74% of 27)
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?No $15K · now 42¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (59% of 44)
- Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-11-01?No $11K · now 96¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (68% of 33)
- Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-11-01?Yes $8.1K · now 35¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
24,654 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 58¢- College Football
+44 pts
side won 99% of 767 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +41%
- MLB
+41 pts
side won 97% of 3174 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +40%
- NFL
+41 pts
side won 98% of 615 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +37%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 56% of 2534)
- 30–50¢: 22%(won 94% of 5495)
- 50–70¢: 36%(won 99% of 8895)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 100% of 7730)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.