Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Cavaliers, while the market favors Knicks (55%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Knicks (-3.5)

5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Cavaliers (100%) · Cavaliers at 46¢ · $765 held · ends Nov 12

Knicks55¢Cavaliers45¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cavaliers

Consensus Traders

Cavaliers 100%

Total Value

$764.72

Combined PnL

$42.12

Smart Money Entry

45.4¢ → 45.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Knicks55%

Cavaliers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cavaliers5 traders

Total Value$764.72

Total Shares1,174

Combined PnL+$42.12

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Cavaliersavg 45.7¢	$393.53	$412.57	+$19.04	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
38 38791873984189CTR	Cavaliersavg 45.3¢	$163.05	$178.2	+$15.15	48% 1332-1446 (2778)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 45¢	$82.8	$83.72	+$0.92	51% 1833-1787 (3620)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 45.9¢	$49.23	$53.1	+$3.88	59% 3476-2367 (5843)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Cavaliersavg 45.3¢	$34	$37.13	+$3.13	48% 662-711 (1373)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$393.53

Value

$412.57

PnL

+$19.04

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

38791873984189CTR

Cavaliers

Invested

$163.05

Value

$178.2

PnL

+$15.15

Record

48%

1332-1446 (2778)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$82.8

Value

$83.72

PnL

+$0.92

Record

51%

1833-1787 (3620)

NM-PCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$49.23

Value

$53.1

PnL

+$3.88

Record

59%

3476-2367 (5843)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Cavaliers

Invested

$34

Value

$37.13

PnL

+$3.13

Record

48%

662-711 (1373)

Research grade

AvoidCavaliers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Cavaliers

5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Knicks 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cavaliers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.