Consensus PnL $3.0M · win rate 54% (3463–2953, n=6416) · PM monthly #9 · holds 38 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.0M
Record
3463W / 2953L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 6416 settled
Batting Avg
61.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1482
Source
PM monthly #9
Trades
19,823
Markets
33,717
Volume
$247.6M
Top consensus positions
38 in listed consensus markets · 33 of 38 on the consensus side (87%)- Spread: Rams (-17.5)Chargers $42K · now 82¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Spread: Bills (-13.5)Ravens $41K · now 81¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Spread: Commanders (-17.5)Eagles $33K · now 83¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Spread: Jets (-9.5)Raiders $30K · now 79¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Spread: Commanders (-5.5)Eagles $28K · now 47¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Spread: Rams (-14.5)Chargers $27K · now 76¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Spread: Bengals (-21.5)Titans $26K · now 79¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Spread: Jets (-7.5)Raiders $19K · now 75¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
Specialties
2,722 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 58¢- NBA
+49 pts
side won 100% of 191 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +48%
- College Football
+48 pts
side won 100% of 614 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +47%
- NHL
+46 pts
side won 100% of 250 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +46%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 95% of 37)
- 30–50¢: 30%(won 100% of 819)
- 50–70¢: 48%(won 100% of 1319)
- 70¢ and up: 20%(won 100% of 547)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.