Spread: Rockets (-22.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nuggets (40%) · Nuggets at 91¢ · $945 held · ends Nov 10

Rockets10¢Nuggets90¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nuggets

Consensus Traders

Nuggets 40%

Total Value

$944.86

Combined PnL

$203.42

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets10%

Nuggets91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nuggets2 traders

Total Value$690.71

Total Shares764

Combined PnL+$2.77

Rockets3 traders

Total Value$254.15

Total Shares535

Combined PnL+$200.65

Nuggets — 40%Rockets — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Nuggetsavg 90¢	$685.33	$689.14	+$3.81	—
RN1CTR	Rocketsavg 10¢	$25	$118.75	+$93.75	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Rocketsavg 10¢	$22.01	$104.54	+$82.53	—
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 10¢	$6.5	$30.87	+$24.37	—
nigiri99<$100	Nuggetsavg 87¢	$2.61	$1.58	-$1.03	—

Flaznorp

Nuggets

Invested

$685.33

Value

$689.14

PnL

+$3.81

Record

—

RN1CTR

Rockets

Invested

$25

Value

$118.75

PnL

+$93.75

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Rockets

Invested

$22.01

Value

$104.54

PnL

+$82.53

Record

—

Pan9XCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$6.5

Value

$30.87

PnL

+$24.37

Record

—

nigiri99<$100

Nuggets

Invested

$2.61

Value

$1.58

PnL

-$1.03

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidNuggets at 91%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nuggets

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nuggets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.