Patriots vs. Lions
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Lions (67%) · Lions at 57¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Lions
3
Lions 67%
2 arb excluded
$7.0K
-$12.43
58¢ → 57.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLions at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Lions. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Lionsavg 58¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | -$0 | 61% 891-567 (1458) |
GM gmpm2 | Lionsavg 58¢ | $1.8K | $1.4K | -$11.42 | 55% 356-293 (649) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Patriotsavg 42.4¢ | $433.3 | $374.74 | -$2 | 48% 767-833 (1600) |
| └ Patriots leg | Patriotsavg 42.4¢ | $280.55 | $281.24 | +$0.7 | |
| └ Lions leg | Lionsavg 57.9¢ | $94.23 | $93.5 | -$2.7 | |
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Lionsavg 58¢ | $218.36 | $217.09 | -$1.27 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
| └ Lions leg | Lionsavg 58¢ | $159.78 | $159.69 | -$0.09 | |
| └ Patriots leg | Patriotsavg 41.8¢ | $58.58 | $57.4 | -$1.18 | |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Patriotsavg 43.6¢ | $20.31 | $7.66 | -$1.02 | 48% 409-445 (854) |
Invested
$4,956.86
Value
$5.0K
PnL
-$0
Record
61%
891-567 (1458)
Invested
$1,765.03
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$11.42
Record
55%
356-293 (649)
Invested
$433.3
Value
$374.74
PnL
-$2
Record
48%
767-833 (1600)
Both legs:
Invested
$218.36
Value
$217.09
PnL
-$1.27
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.31
Value
$7.66
PnL
-$1.02
Record
48%
409-445 (854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.