Consensus PnL $177K · win rate 65% (1743–919, n=2662) · was PM monthly #806 · holds 30 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$176.7K
Record
1743W / 919L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 2662 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#921
Source
PM monthly #806
Trades
1,123
Markets
2,763
Volume
$3.1M
Top consensus positions
30 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 30 on the consensus side (57%)- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $32K · now 41¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (No)
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-11-01?Yes $21K · now 28¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $19K · now 32¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-11-01?Yes $11K · now 39¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-11-01?No $8.9K · now 86¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (78% of 29)
- Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-11-01?Yes $2.4K · now 83¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (65% of 35)
- Ravens vs. BillsBills $2.3K · now 62¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Will Frosinone Calcio win on 2026-11-01?Yes $2.3K · now 71¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (50% of 24)
Specialties
1,571 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 69¢- MLB
+43 pts
side won 100% of 44 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +45%
- NFL
+36 pts
side won 100% of 81 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +28%
- Tennis
+32 pts
side won 100% of 207 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +31%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 18)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 100% of 151)
- 50–70¢: 38%(won 100% of 591)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 100% of 811)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.