Spread: Rangers (-1.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Rangers (78%) · Rangers at 74¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Rangers74¢Flames26¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rangers

Consensus Traders

Rangers 78%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$42.44

Smart Money Entry

33.4¢ → 73.5¢

+120% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralRangers at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rangers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Rangers74%

Flames27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rangers7 traders

Total Value$720.16

Total Shares2,079

Combined PnL+$31.45

Flames2 traders

Total Value$576.36

Total Shares592

Combined PnL+$10.99

Rangers — 78%Flames — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
97 0x9703...69c2	Rangersavg 33¢	$583.7	$601.39	+$17.69	—
38 38791873984189CTR	Flamesavg 65¢	$539.63	$550.62	+$10.99	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
4D 0x4dd2...14c2<$100	Rangersavg 34¢	$56.78	$56.78	+$0	—
0A 0x0a77...9d74<$100	Rangersavg 34.1¢	$35.3	$35.2	-$0.1	—
DC 0xdc41...dd7eCTR<$100	Flamesavg 66¢	$25.74	$25.74	+$0	—
GH ghorrock<$100	Rangersavg 33¢	$13.7	$16.42	+$13.87	55% 683-554 (1237)
PA Pan9X<$100	Rangersavg 66¢	$5.02	$5.17	+$0.15	49% 693-734 (1427)
5D 0x5d40...ba95<$100	Rangersavg 66¢	$4.4	$4.53	+$0.13	—
FL Flaznorp<$100	Rangersavg 49¢	$0.96	$0.67	-$0.29	51% 1925-1866 (3791)

0x9703...69c2

Rangers

Invested

$583.7

Value

$601.39

PnL

+$17.69

Record

—

38791873984189CTR

Flames

Invested

$539.63

Value

$550.62

PnL

+$10.99

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

0x4dd2...14c2<$100

Rangers

Invested

$56.78

Value

$56.78

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0x0a77...9d74<$100

Rangers

Invested

$35.3

Value

$35.2

PnL

-$0.1

Record

—

0xdc41...dd7eCTR<$100

Flames

Invested

$25.74

Value

$25.74

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ghorrock<$100

Rangers

Invested

$13.7

Value

$16.42

PnL

+$13.87

Record

55%

683-554 (1237)

Pan9X<$100

Rangers

Invested

$5.02

Value

$5.17

PnL

+$0.15

Record

49%

693-734 (1427)

0x5d40...ba95<$100

Rangers

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.53

PnL

+$0.13

Record

—

Flaznorp<$100

Rangers

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.67

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

1925-1866 (3791)

Research grade

NeutralRangers at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rangers

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rangers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.