Consensus PnL -$13K · win rate 53% (6067–5393, n=11460) · PM monthly #509 · holds 315 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-13.2K
Record
6067W / 5393L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 11460 settled
Batting Avg
48.4%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1543
Source
PM monthly #509
Trades
12,943
Markets
27,223
Volume
$2.2M
Top consensus positions
315 in listed consensus markets · 222 of 315 on the consensus side (70%)- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $1.1K · now 47¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will Invictus Gaming win Worlds 2026?No $1.1K · now 94¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will T1 win Worlds 2026?Yes $647 · now 23¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (No)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $419 · now 24¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $409 · now 15¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (85% of 13)
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No $375 · now 94¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseNo $326 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes $313 · now 93¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
Specialties
2,055 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 72¢- College Football
+49 pts
side won 100% of 250 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +33%
- NFL
+46 pts
side won 100% of 149 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +23%
- NBA
+48 pts
side won 100% of 42 · avg entry 52¢
ROI +17%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 86% of 88)
- 30–50¢: 18%(won 100% of 369)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 100% of 400)
- 70¢ and up: 58%(won 100% of 1198)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.