Will Italy win on 2026-11-12?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $483 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$483.42
$6.78
77.9¢ → 79.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 77¢ | $173.55 | $178.06 | +$4.51 | 50% 1421-1422 (2843) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 79¢ | $117.64 | $117.64 | +$0 | 60% 3442-2336 (5778) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $88.88 | $89.44 | +$0.56 | 16% 66-348 (414) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $66.99 | $68.73 | +$1.74 | 48% 917-990 (1907) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 78.2¢ | $27.35 | $27.32 | -$0.03 | 15% 16-94 (110) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $2.24 | $2.24 | +$0 | 43% 2556-3350 (5906) |
Invested
$173.55
Value
$178.06
PnL
+$4.51
Record
50%
1421-1422 (2843)
Invested
$117.64
Value
$117.64
PnL
+$0
Record
60%
3442-2336 (5778)
Invested
$88.88
Value
$89.44
PnL
+$0.56
Record
16%
66-348 (414)
Invested
$66.99
Value
$68.73
PnL
+$1.74
Record
48%
917-990 (1907)
Invested
$27.35
Value
$27.32
PnL
-$0.03
Record
15%
16-94 (110)
Invested
$2.24
Value
$2.24
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
2556-3350 (5906)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.